To Hit Vn22 900. Share on: Facebook Google Pinterest Reddit Stumble it Digg LinkedIn You may also like. We expect the cyclical support to GBP to fade which will open the door to structural frailties and political risk to belatedly exert an influence over GBP. They may be correct, but the tight fit between GBP-USD and rate differentials suggests there is not much political risk in the currency to take account of a less favourable outcome. Source: Bloomberg, hsbc GBP Forecast, this year GBP has slavishly and exclusively followed only cyclical drivers not the political ones.
Such cyclical considerations have been jolted further in GBPs favour, following the BoEs pivot towards the exit at its September meeting. GBPs tight relationship with the interest rate outlook suggests very little is in the price for political risk, a complacency which opens up asymmetric downside risks. The ticking clock on Brexit negotiations is likely to lend politics greater influence, especially if progress remains difficult to come. But with the clock ticking towards Brexit, politics may get a grip on GBP in 2018.
Chart 4 shows the UKs economic surprise index where the downward moving line since March 2017 means that the bulk of activity indicators have been disappointing relative to consensus. We forecast hikes from the RBA, rbnz, Riksbank and Norges Bank and expect their currencies to strengthen as a consequence. One obvious answer is that we are a year closer to the deadline for the end of the Article 50 negotiations. Currency forex mt4 scanner Exchange Rates Today, canadian dollar cad to vietnamese dong vnd 10 day history british pound gbp to vietnam dong vnd 10 day history australian dollar aud to vietnamese dong vnd history australian dollar aud to vietnamese dong vnd history dong rates from 1983. But the other curiosity is that the pivot to the exit comes against a backdrop where the UK economy is not really over-delivering. Contrary to our expectations, GBP has been exclusively driven by cyclical forces in 2017.